Research

Taupo District Economic Monitor December 2016

This report provides an analysis and assessment of the current economic situation within the Taupo district area, trends over the past year and the national economic outlook for the next 12 months. The base information for the analysis is sourced from a range of organisations including Statistics New Zealand, Government agencies, banking sector and other organisations. Growth comparisons with other regions and the country as a whole are included in the analysis, where appropriate. Appendices 1 and 2 provide a range of annual key economic and industry indicator results for the district since 2005 which may be helpful to business and other interests in and outside the area.  This report covers the December 2016 quarter.

Trend summary:

There were a number of individual economic indicator changes in the Taupo District during the past year, to December 2016, including as follows:     

Positive economic changes:

  • Noticeable gains in total population and overall net population migration into the District.
  • Significant growth in the volume and value of consented new residential building.
  • Increased volume and value of consented building alterations.
  • Increased house sales, median selling prices and median housing rentals.
  • Significantly increased volume and value of retail spending.
  • Significant gain in commercial visitor arrival numbers & night-stays, and also in total direct visitor spend. 

The main ‘downside’ local economic indicator trends over the past year were the significant falls in the volume and value of consented new commercial-industrial and rural buildings.  

Overall, real economic activity/ GDP growth of an estimated 2.8% was recorded for the Taupo District for the March 2016 year.  This compares with the estimated 2.4% national growth rate for the period. On the basis of the significant increase over the past year in the value of all consented new building, visitor spend and retail spend in the district, stronger overall growth is forecast for the area for the year ending March 2017. 

The Taupo sectors which recorded the strongest overall GDP growth in real terms during the 2006-2013 period were, forestry/logging and wood manufacturing, mining and energy provision, and commercial services.

District employment grew by an estimated 3.9% last year whilst unemployment fell by 1.7%. The rate of unemployment fell from 4.3% down to 4%.

Nationally, dairy industry export receipts nationally are forecast to recover by some 24% during the coming year. Meat and wool receipts are forecast to increase by around 4%. Forestry exports are forecast to increase by approximately 6%. Horticultural export receipts are forecast to increase by 5% during the coming year. Whilst the ANZ Bank’s international commodity price Index has dropped back noticeably since 2013, nevertheless, the Index has been on an underlying long-term increasing trend since around 2003.  

The latest New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Consensus Forecasts, prepared in December last year, are anticipating 3.5% average annual economic growth for New Zealand as a whole for the year ended March 2017, compared to the figure of 2.4% for the year ended March 2016.

Taupo District will continue to look to its key industry strengths of pastoral farming, forestry and logging, manufacturing of wood products, geothermal energy generation and application, and the tourism/ events sector, to continue to drive further economic growth and development in the area over the coming year.

Click to download the full report: Taupo District Economic Monitor - Dec 2016 Quarter

Estimated Population (June 2016): 36,200 

Estimated Total Households: 14,500 

Estimated Total Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):   $1.70 million 

Estimated Annual Economic Growth (March 2016): 2.8% 

Annual HLFS Based Employment: 19,338 

Annual employment change: 3.9% 

Estimated unemployment: 812 

Estimated unemployment rate (%): 4%

 

Economic Research and Reports

Each quarter, Enterprise Great Lake Taupo commissions economic research and publishes the findings in the ‘Taupō District Economic Monitor’.  This report is prepared independently by Economist Sean Bevin, and follows the same format each quarter to provide benchmarking and comparison.  

Local valuers, Truss & Keys, produce an annual Retail Precinct Survey that contains benchmarking data and analysis.  You can read the current edition here

SME's dominate our industries and make an important contribution to our economy. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment together with Statistics New Zealand have put together this Small Business sheet that contains plenty of great facts and figures.

MBIE also have an interactive tool that you can use to find out key economic data and see how our economy compares to others.  Check it out here.

Marketview - This report gives an insight into retail spending in the Taupo District. It looks at who is spending in our district, where the hotspots are and how our retail spend compares to the rest of New Zealand. 

Download previous Taupo District Economic Monitor reports below:

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